Red Letter Day

Monday, November 06, 2006

My 2006 election predictions

Here are my final election predictions for 2006....

First the Kansas races:

Sebelius wins re-election as Governor with 57% of the vote.

Morrison defeats Kline in the Attorney General's race, with 53% of the vote.

Moore wins re-election in the 3rd Congressional district, with 55% of the vote.

Ryun narrowly wins re-election in the 2nd Congressional district, with 51% of the vote.

Nationally, the Democrats will pick up 14 Congressional seats. Most of the other predictions show them gaining 20 or more seats. Yeah, the GOP will surprise people, just like they did in 2004, as many of their supporters don't show up well in polls. If I did the math right, this means the Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives by (I think) 2 seats. Yeah, I am a pessimist. I'd love to be wrong here.

In the Senate, the GOP will lose three seats. This will give leave them a 52-48 advantage (counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats).

All of the gay marriage amendments on various ballots will also pass, but not by as much as in past years; in several states, such as Colorado, Arizona, and Wisconsin, the "no" side will be able to garner percentages well into the mid 40s, indicating that Americans are slowly becoming more liberal on this issue, albeit not terribly quickly.


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